All Models are Right...Most are Useless

Authors

Thaddeus Tarpey

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

8-4-2009

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Abstract

Students of statistics are often introduced to George Box's famous quote: "all models are wrong, some are useful." In this talk I argue that this quote, although useful, is wrong. A different and more positive perspective is to acknowledge that a model is simply a means of extracting information of interest from data. The truth is infinitely complex and a model is merely an approximation to the truth. If the approximation is poor or misleading, then the model is useless. In this talk I give examples of correct models that are not true models. I illustrate how the notion of a "wrong" model can lead to wrong conclusions.

Comments

This paper was presented at the Joint Statistical Meeting, August 4, 2009, in Washington, DC.

Repository Citation

Tarpey, T. (2009). All Models are Right...Most are Useless. 2009 JSM Proceedings: Papers Presented at the Joint Statistical Meeting.
https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/math/211