Master's Culminating Experience
Confidence intervals convey valuable information regarding the uncertainty of point estimates, and their utility to users of business forecasts is no exception. The conclusions drawn from these forecasts can be significantly impacted by the perception of a confidence interval's distribution, however. There is a tendency for business managers and other decision makers who lack statistical expertise, despite being generally well educated, to incorrectly assume confidence intervals are uniformly distributed. This study investigates the efficacy of various techniques for presenting confidence interval information at conveying the details of the underlying statistical distribution. The results demonstrate significant improvement in the accurate interpretation of confidence intervals is possible with the right method of presentation.
Price, J. M.
(2011). Have Confidence in your Interval Estimates: Improving Cognition of Confidence Intervals Used in Business Forecasting. .