The 2009 A320 ditching on the Hudson River revealed to the public that critical decision-making ability was a key asset for pilots. Situation awareness and workload management are two key elements as well as the ability to anticipate how the situation will evolve. Thales Avionics is funding research through its HF research Lab (HEAL) on HMI facilitating pilot anticipation. This presentation covers a literature review on anticipation so as to develop a model of anticipation in a realistic flying task. Analyzing the concept of anticipation leads us to consider it as a metacognitive process relying on cognitive resource management, situation awareness and time management, using abstract representations. After reviewing these concepts, we focus on time management and anticipation. It reveals a closed loop mechanism inspired from the reafference principle. This will be the basis for a HMI based on a model of anticipation in flight.
& Hourlier, S.
(2011). Developing Asap (Anticipation Support for Aeronautical Planning). 16th International Symposium on Aviation Psychology, 627-632.