Sensitivity of the Mangrove Forest in the Joal-Fadiouth Marine Protected Area (Senegal) to Climate Variability (Rainfall and Temperatures)

Authors

• Eugenie Marie Mossane Sene, Regional Postgraduate School of Integrated Management and Development of Tropical Forests and Territories, Kinshasa, DR CongoFollow
• Elhadji Faye, Department of Forestry Production, Higher Institute of Agricultural and Rural Training, Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal
• Sylvie Brizard Zongo, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Masuku University of Science and Technology, Franceville, Gabon
• Hippolyte Ditona Tsumbu, Department of Health and Environment, School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, DR Congo
• Jean-Claude Micha, Environmental Biology Research Unit, University of Namur, Namur, Belgique

Abstract

Mangroves provide coastal communities with a multitude of ecosystem services. This is the case in Joal-Fadiouth. A study on its mangrove dynamics revealed a decline in area between 1974 and 2004, followed by a gradual trend after it acquired Marine Protected Area (MPA) status in 2004. Given the importance of this mangrove, the research focused on analyzing its evolution associated with rainfall and temperature variability. To do this, Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient was performed between mangrove areas in 10-year increments from 1974 to 2024 and values of climate parameters studied for each increment, with n (number of pairs) = 6. Buishand's test and Hubert's segmentation were applied to annual rainfall and temperature data, which were then analyzed using Lamb index and thermal amplitude, respectively. The results indicated a very strong positive correlation (+0.94, p-value = 4.80e-03) between mangrove extent and rainfall, a strong positive correlation with maximum temperatures (+0.83, p-value = 0.04), and a p-value of 0.96 for minimum temperatures which was not statistically significant. Buishand’s test and Hubert’s segmentation revealed breaks in climate series and their non-stationarity. Lamb index gave 33 dry years and 27 wet years, generally coinciding with periods of mangrove loss and regeneration. Furthermore, synchronization was established between mangrove evolution and thermal fluctuations before and after 2004 through thermal amplitude. It would be interesting to combine these results with those of a study on local activities correlated with mangrove evolution to establish effective management strategies for this entity of the Joal-Fadiouth Marine Protected Area (JFMPA).

Article History

Received: Nov 17, 2025; Accepted: Jun 19, 2026; Published: June 30, 2026.

Recommended Citation

Sene, E., Faye, E., Zongo, S., Tsumbu, H., & Micha, J. (2026). Sensitivity of the Mangrove Forest in the Joal-Fadiouth Marine Protected Area (Senegal) to Climate Variability (Rainfall and Temperatures), Journal of Bioresource Management, 13 (2).