Document Type

Master's Culminating Experience

Publication Date



The natural rate of unemployment is always estimated using rates of unemployment for married males, yet no substantiated criteria exists for this choice. This study compares estimates of the natural rate of unemployment based on the unemployment rates of married males and married females, which are used in estimating the Phillips curve. The results shows that the two series exhibit similar trends over the study period, but the female-based series is lower. This implies that the natural rate is not independent of the demographic group chosen to estimate it. The basis for the study is a 1993 article by Stuart E. Weiner, where a natural rate series based on married males is replicated taking into account demographic and structural changes.