Document Type

Master's Culminating Experience

Publication Date

1990

Abstract

Based on my forecasting model, NCR Corporation's domestic Personal Computer (PC) quarterly revenue can be expected to increase to between fifty-eight million dollars and seventy- three million. These quarterly forecasts may overestimate revenue during the expected coming recession since data was not available during such a similar time period in the past. All of the data is from 1984 to the present - a time in which the U.S. economy enjoyed continued slow growth. Although the quarterly forecasts are derived from a reliable econometric model, the uncertainty of the Gulf Crisis and coming recession are not represented in these statistical forecasts, thus management would be advised to take into account the more moderate forecasts from the monthly model as well.

I found NCR's monthly domestic PC revenue to be a statistical function of U.S. Factory Capacitor Sales, Consumer Durables Production, Memory Circuits Leadtimes, and Communications Equipment Employment. NCR's quarterly domestic PC revenue was found to be a function of U.S. Factory Capacitor Sales, Active Component Leadtimes, Memory Circuits Leadtimes, and Business Investment in Communications Equipment.

As you can see, there is a lack of internal data in both these models. I found it very difficult to secure consistent, reliable figures on such variables as advertising expenditures and the number of sales people. These and possibly other internal variables could be very important and should be included in future updates of these models. A suggestion that would allow the addition of these variables, would be to set up an internal reporting system of revenue, advertising expenditures, number of sales people, and any other internal variables that might be of use. A consistent and reliable reporting system to the Market Research Department for use in the analysis and modification of these models could greatly increase the reliability of future forecasts.

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