Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

Authors

Richard J. Murnane
Christopher C. Barton, Wright State University - Main CampusFollow
Eric Collins
Jeffrey Donnelly
James Elsner
Kerry Emanuel
Isaac Ginis
Susan Howard
Chris Landsea
Kam-bui Liu
David Malmquist
Megan McKay
Anthony Michaels
Norm Nelson
James O'Brien
David Scott
Thompson Webb III

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-2000

Abstract

In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s⁻¹ have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [Pielke and Pielke, 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas.

The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899–1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

Repository Citation

Murnane, R. J., Barton, C. C., Collins, E., Donnelly, J., Elsner, J., Emanuel, K., Ginis, I., Howard, S., Landsea, C., Liu, K., Malmquist, D., McKay, M., Michaels, A., Nelson, N., O'Brien, J., Scott, D., & Webb, T. (2000). Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities. Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 81 (38), 433-438.
https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/ees/119

DOI

10.1029/00EO00319