Task-Offload Tools Improve Productivity and Performance in Geopolitical Forecasting

Authors

Ion Juvina, Wright State University - Main CampusFollow
Othalia Larue, Wright State University
Colin Widmer, Kairos Research
Subhashini Ganapathy, Wright State University - Main CampusFollow
Srikanth Nadella, Kairos Research
Brandon Minnery, Kairos Research
Lance Ramshaw, Raytheon BBN Technologies Corp.
Emile Servan-Schreiber, Hypermind, LLC
Maurice Balick, Hypermind, LLC
Ralph Weischedel, Information Sciences Institute

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2020

Identifier/URL

40954994 (Pure)

Abstract

Recent studies in geopolitical forecasting have identifiedpsychological variables that predict forecasting accuracy.We studied the effect of providing human forecasters withautomated information search and task management supporttools. Our research aimed to determine whether use of thesupport tools could explain additional variance in forecast-ing performance above and beyond psychological variables.We found that the provided tools encouraged participants todo more work (i.e., information search, communication, re-flection, etc.), which in turn resulted in improved forecast-ing performance.

Comments

This work is licensed under CC BY 4.0

Repository Citation

Juvina, I., Larue, O., Widmer, C., Ganapathy, S., Nadella, S., Minnery, B., Ramshaw, L., Servan-Schreiber, E., Balick, M., & Weischedel, R. (2020). Task-Offload Tools Improve Productivity and Performance in Geopolitical Forecasting. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2558.
https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/psychology/649